Kantor Consulting · Strategic Intelligence Bulletin
H1 2026 Review & Outlook
Berlin · Washington, D.C. · Bogotá
The first half of 2026 has been the most analytically productive period in Kantor Consulting's history. Across 11 political and security analyses, four editorial pieces in El Espectador, and active engagement with institutional partners on three continents, we have tracked a world in deep structural motion — a Venezuelan "transition" that isn't, a Colombian election that resists simple framing, a Hungarian regime change, and an American security guarantee that is quietly losing its credibility. This bulletin is a record of that work, and a map of what comes next.
12
Briefing Room & full feature analyses
↑ Free to read
4
Editorial pieces in El Espectador
↑ 10+ expert quotes placed
3
Offices & geographies
Berlin · DC · Bogotá
5
Active research tracks
↑ Subscription model launching
Operation Containment: State Force, Criminal Adaptation & the Weaponization of Commercial Drones
Brazil's Operação Contenção exposed how Comando Vermelho deployed modified commercial UAVs for surveillance and attacks in Rio — eroding state informational dominance and signaling a new threshold in criminal militarization.
The 2026 Hungarian Election: A Structural and Strategic Analysis
Sixteen years of Orbán, a gerrymandered system, and a challenger who may end Europe's most-studied illiberal regime — with immediate consequences for Brussels, NATO, and Washington.
From the Persian Gulf to Latin America: Repercussions of the War in Iran
Energy shocks, tightening dollar liquidity, expanding criminal economies, and weakening security partnerships — the region absorbs the costs of a war it did not choose.
Three Candidates, Three Models: Colombian Foreign Policy in Dispute
Colombia's 2026 election is a decision about the country's place in a rapidly shifting international order. Three candidates, three distinct visions: Cepeda toward autonomy, Valencia toward Washington, De la Espriella toward rupture without a roadmap.
Colombia 2026 — The Foreign Policy Stakes: Scenarios, Consequences, and Opportunities
Colombia's 2026 election is a foreign policy inflection point. Each leading candidate represents a distinct strategic orientation — this analysis maps the consequences across U.S. relations, Chinese investment, regional positioning, counternarcotics, and migration management.
Reorganized, Not Dismantled: The Authoritarian Pact in Post-Maduro Venezuela
Six months after Operation Absolute Resolve, Venezuela has not produced a democratic transition — it has produced a supervised kleptocracy. Maduro is gone; the apparatus that sustained him is not.
Colombia 2026: Paz Total Has Failed — And Washington Is Not the Answer Either
Colombia's security crisis is a structural failure. Petro's Paz Total has collapsed. But the U.S. that underwrote Plan Colombia no longer exists — its arsenals depleted, its attention overextended, its reliability conditional.
Colombia 2026 — Presidential Runoff: An American-Looking Election That Isn't
Colombia's June 21 runoff is widely read as an American story — a polling upset, a Trump-captured right, a global rightward wave. Our analysis argues most of that framing breaks on arrival.
Between Patron and Strongman: Colombia's Security Crisis After Paz Total
Colombia's June 21 runoff is a choice between Cepeda's negotiated continuity and de la Espriella's Bukele-style mano dura backed by Washington. We argue both misread a structural crisis — and that neither model offers a viable path.
De la Espriella and Colombia's Energy Future
De la Espriella's narrow runoff win has markets betting on a hydrocarbon revival. Our analysis separates what the incoming government can do quickly from what Congress and the courts will block — and finds that while the political shift is immediate, the structural change is anything but.
The Hollow Border: Criminal Governance, State Abandonment, and the Geopolitics of Migration on the Colombia–Venezuela Border
A full-length research paper proposing the concept of the "hollow border" — a frontier that retains juridical existence but whose institutional fabric has been evacuated by three structural crises: the collapse of the Venezuelan state, the reconfiguration of binational criminal economies, and the asymmetric securitization of mass migration. Ten chapters covering border geography, criminal governance, Venezuelan hybrid state structures, drone warfare, migration narratives, post-Maduro scenarios, and policy recommendations.
US Foreign Policy and Latin America: Hard Power, Empty Pockets, and the New Hemispheric Order (Part One of Two)
A comprehensive background paper examining the Trump administration's November 2025 National Security Strategy and its Latin American implications. The analysis traces the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, the operational record in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, the depletion of U.S. precision munition stockpiles, and the structural consequences for regional security partnerships — arguing that "peace through strength" rests on depleted foundations and a supply chain that runs through an adversary.
El Espectador · Opinion Piece
Del Golfo Pérsico a América Latina: Las repercusiones de la guerra en Irán
El Espectador · Opinion Piece
Reordenado, no desmantelado: el pacto autoritario en la Venezuela post-Maduro
El Espectador · Opinion Piece
El Espectador · Opinion Piece
Trump, De la Espriella y la elección que parece americana pero no lo es
S&P Global · New York
De la Espriella's victory in Colombia could accelerate energy projects, but major hurdles remain
El Espectador · Colombia
La guerra entre EE. UU. e Irán terminó, pero el verdadero ganador sigue en disputa
The war between the U.S. and Iran is over, but the real winner remains in dispute
El Espectador · Colombia
Trump persigue victorias en Oriente Medio, pero la apertura de Ormuz es un triunfo efímero
Trump is seeking victories in the Middle East, but the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a fleeting victory
El Espectador · Colombia
Trump está frustrado con la guerra en Irán y se desquita con la OTAN
Trump is frustrated with the war in Iran and is taking it out on NATO
El Espectador · Colombia
El mundo, en vilo ante el ultimátum de Trump de que 'Irán puede ser eliminado en una noche'
The world is on edge over Trump's ultimatum that "Iran could be wiped out overnight"
El Espectador · Colombia
Irán y EE. UU. reclaman victorias en medio de ataques que resultarían en crímenes de guerra
Iran and the U.S. claim victories amid attacks that could constitute war crimes
El Espectador · Colombia
Corte Suprema bloquea aranceles de Trump y refuerza los contrapesos del poder en EE. UU.
Supreme Court blocks Trump's tariffs and strengthens the checks and balances of power in the U.S.
El Espectador · Colombia
Maduro llega con los secretos del régimen ante la justicia de EE. UU.
Maduro arrives with the regime's secrets before the U.S. justice system
El Espectador · Colombia
Sin legitimidad, pero con el poder: Delcy Rodríguez ante la nueva Asamblea de Venezuela
Without legitimacy, but with power: Delcy Rodríguez before Venezuela's new Assembly
US Foreign Policy under Trump
Venezuela transition · Iran · Cuba
LATAM Politics & Security
Colombian election · Colombia–Venezuela border
European Security & Strategic Independence
ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030 · Ukraine · Russian threat
Illiberalism & Democratic Transition
Hungary case study · FDI, IR & EU unity implications
Drone & Counter-Drone Technology
LATAM database · Smart investment guidance for the region
Dorian B. Kantor, Ph.D.
Founder & Chief Analyst · Berlin
Daniel Lozano
Junior Analyst & Researcher · Bogotá
Leonardo Carreño Santamaría
Junior Analyst & Researcher · Bogotá
Juan Diego Cubillos
Junior Analyst & Researcher · Bogotá
Maria Paula Martínez Barahona
Intern / Research Assistant · Bogotá
María José Báez Padilla
Intern / Research Assistant · Bogotá
Elisabeth Weber
Associate Researcher & Analyst · Berlin
Istiak Ahmed
Associate Researcher & Analyst · Berlin
The following analyses, monitors, and research projects are currently in development. All reflect where we believe the most consequential questions are being underanalyzed.
● Stated Order — U.S. National Security Strategy Monitor
How the strategy Washington declares meets the world as it is — tracked across war and peace, alliances, and the global economy. A systematic monitor of the gap between declared doctrine and observable policy outcomes.
● Immigration Undone — Trump Immigration Monitor
The dismantling of the U.S. immigration system, and a running test of its real economic costs. Tracking enforcement actions, legal challenges, labor market effects, and the human consequences of accelerated deportation policy.
● AI-Driven Targeting Decisions in the War in Iran
How artificial intelligence is shaping strike decisions, target selection, and the speed of escalation in an active conflict — and what it means for accountability, proportionality, and the laws of armed conflict.
● Israel's Skyrocketing Weapons Sales
Battle-tested in Gaza and Lebanon, Israeli defense exports have surged to record levels. An analysis of the geopolitical, economic, and ethical dimensions of the arms trade boom — and what it reveals about the global appetite for conflict-proven systems.
● Ukraine Is Now Europe's War
As U.S. commitment wavers and European defense spending surges under ReArm Europe, the war in Ukraine is undergoing a fundamental reframing. What that shift means for strategy, burden-sharing, and the postwar order.
● Post-Election Analysis: Hungarian Politics in Transition
With Orbán's era potentially closing, what comes next for Hungary's institutions, its relationship with Brussels and Washington, and the political and business opportunities that a democratic transition may open.
● The Hollowing of the Political Middle — and What Can Be Done
Across democracies, centrist political space is collapsing under the pressure of polarization, economic grievance, and institutional distrust. This analysis examines the structural drivers and what — if anything — can be done to rebuild a viable political center.
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