This two-part study is a comprehensive analysis of how unmanned aerial systems are reshaping security, governance, and development in Latin America, explicitly framed around the tension between civilian innovation and military exploitation. Commissioned by U.S. Southern Command and produced in cooperation with Florida International University, it traces the rapid diffusion of commercial and dual-use drones among state forces, violent non-state actors, and criminal organizations while systematically assessing local industrial capabilities, state-directed unmanned programs, and the region’s persistent deficits in indigenous counter-UAS capacity. Through detailed country case studies – particularly Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela – the study shows how import dependence, regulatory fragmentation, and uneven technological investment create asymmetric advantages for armed groups and enable extraregional penetration by actors such as Iran, Russia, and China. At the same time, it documents emerging endogenous responses, including developing UAV production, nascent national C-UAS systems, and doctrine shaped by battlefield experience. The argument is blunt: without sustained investment in sovereign unmanned and counter-unmanned capabilities, integrated regulation, and regional coordination, Latin America’s airspace will remain contested, to the detriment of state authority and civilian protection.

Authors: Dorian Kantor and Felipe Santofimio

Forthcoming

The U.S. is signaling military force toward Venezuela without a coherent strategy. Any intervention would be costly, unstable, and unlikely to produce political change. Airstrikes wouldn’t secure a transition and could trigger institutional collapse, regional crises, migration spikes, and greater Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence. Hard power offers no viable long-term solution.

Op-ed piece in the Colombian newspaper El Espectador

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio Nevares, Maria Paula Martínez

November 15, 2025

Weaponized commercial drones have transformed modern conflict by enabling weaker actors to shape the battlefield faster than laws or institutions can respond. While U.S. drones reinforced asymmetry during the Global War on Terror, today’s revolution is private-sector driven, rapidly adopted by Ukraine and violent non-state groups across Latin America. Mexican cartels and Colombian insurgents now use modified UAVs for surveillance, strikes, and psychological impact, escalating violence. With fragmented regulations and expanding global supply chains, states face rising instability. The paper calls for coordinated export controls, regional cooperation, and national investment in counter-drone technology, doctrine, and legal frameworks.

Policy Innovation Series

Florida International University — Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio Nevares

October, 2025

While democracy once flourished, recent trends indicate a troubling decline, exemplified by the erosion of democratic norms and practices globally. This article scrutinizes the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on American democracy, revealing a landscape fraught with polarization, institutional dysfunction, and societal divisions. With looming threats of authoritarian resurgence and geopolitical tensions, the article underscores the pivotal role of the United States in upholding the liberal world order. As the world watches the upcoming elections with bated breath, the fate of American democracy hangs in the balance, with profound implications for global stability and the future of governance.

Author: Dorian Kantor

Pax Lumina: A Quest for Peace and Reconciliation

p. 20 | Vol. 05 | No. 02 March 2024

This article published in Revista Credencial examines the potential implications of a second Trump presidency, highlighting the damage caused during his first term, including the undermining of international agreements, the weakening of U.S. alliances, and the erosion of trust in democratic institutions. The analysis predicts that Trump would likely pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions, setting a dangerous precedent in international law and further emboldening authoritarian regimes. It also discusses Europe’s limited capacity to sustain Ukraine without U.S. support and raises concerns about unchecked Israeli actions in Gaza encouraged by a Trump administration. Domestically, the article shows how Republican control of Congress and the Supreme Court would remove critical checks on presidential power, enabling the consolidation of executive authority, with long-term consequences for U.S. law and governance.

Author: Dorian Kanto

You can read the article in Spanish on the website of Revista Credencial.

Revista Credencial (Noviembre 2024, Edición 456)

Abstract in English:

This chapter critically examines the Biden administration's policy towards Latin America, revealing a significant gap between its initial promises and actual outcomes. The findings indicate that despite Biden's commitments to restoring democracy, improving economic ties, and addressing security concerns in the region, the administration has struggled to depart from traditional U.S. approaches. The analysis shows that structural challenges, entrenched interests, and the legacy of previous administrations have limited the effectiveness of Biden's policies. As a result, the anticipated shift towards a more cooperative and respectful relationship with Latin American countries has been only partially realized, with significant issues still unresolved.

Resumen en español:

Este capítulo examina críticamente la política de la administración Biden hacia América Latina, revelando una brecha significativa entre sus promesas iniciales y los resultados reales. Los hallazgos indican que, a pesar de los compromisos de Biden de restaurar la democracia, mejorar los lazos económicos y abordar las preocupaciones de seguridad en la región, la administración ha luchado por alejarse de los enfoques tradicionales de Estados Unidos. El análisis muestra que los desafíos estructurales, los intereses arraigados y el legado de administraciones anteriores han limitado la efectividad de las políticas de Biden. Como resultado, el cambio anticipado hacia una relación más cooperativa y respetuosa con los países latinoamericanos solo se ha logrado parcialmente, quedando aún sin resolver problemas significativos.

Author: Dorian Kantor

Book chapter in Reconfiguración del orden mundial: incertidumbres regionales y locales. Edited by Andrés Serbín, Eduardo Pastrana Buelvas, Stefan Reith, 111-116. Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2024.
ISBN: 978-628-7708-08-2

Democrats defied the tides of history and bucked the conventional wisdom which tells us that the incumbent president’s party suffers heavy losses in Congress in midterm elections. Despite the dire forecasts, the Democrats expanded their Senate majority (for the first time in a midterm since 1962) and far outperformed expectations in the House by ceding only 9 seats to Republicans. The pre-election “shellacking” narrative was driven by numerous factors such as the president’s low approval rating, economic concerns, and an increasingly out-of-control crisis at the southern border. A combination of confounding variables including the Dobbs effect, concerns about democratic backsliding, and the foreign and domestic policy accomplishments of Biden’s unified government energized the Democratic base as well as independent voters to turn out for the president’s party and softened the widely predicted midterm blow.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung - Analysis 
ISBN 978-3-98628-223-2

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Gerardo Caneva Zárate, Diana S. Meléndrez

January 2023