Forthcoming
This study is a comprehensive analysis of how unmanned aerial systems are reshaping security, governance, and development in Latin America, explicitly framed around the tension between civilian innovation and military exploitation. Commissioned by U.S. Southern Command and produced in cooperation with Florida International University, it traces the rapid diffusion of commercial and dual-use drones among state forces, violent non-state actors, and criminal organizations while systematically assessing local industrial capabilities, state-directed unmanned programs, and the region’s persistent deficits in indigenous counter-UAS capacity. Through detailed country case studies – particularly Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela – the study shows how import dependence, regulatory fragmentation, and uneven technological investment create asymmetric advantages for armed groups and enable extraregional penetration by actors such as Iran, Russia, and China. At the same time, it documents emerging endogenous responses, including improvised UAV production, nascent national C-UAS systems, and doctrine shaped by battlefield experience. The argument is blunt: without sustained investment in sovereign unmanned and counter-unmanned capabilities, integrated regulation, and regional coordination, Latin America’s airspace will remain contested, to the detriment of state authority and civilian protection.

The U.S. is signaling military force toward Venezuela without a coherent strategy. Any intervention would be costly, unstable, and unlikely to produce political change. Airstrikes wouldn’t secure a transition and could trigger institutional collapse, regional crises, migration spikes, and greater Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence. Hard power offers no viable long-term solution.

Op-ed piece in the Colombian newspaper El Espectador

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio Nevares, Maria Paula Martínez

November 15, 2025

Weaponized commercial drones have transformed modern conflict by enabling weaker actors to shape the battlefield faster than laws or institutions can respond. While U.S. drones reinforced asymmetry during the Global War on Terror, today’s revolution is private-sector driven, rapidly adopted by Ukraine and violent non-state groups across Latin America. Mexican cartels and Colombian insurgents now use modified UAVs for surveillance, strikes, and psychological impact, escalating violence. With fragmented regulations and expanding global supply chains, states face rising instability. The paper calls for coordinated export controls, regional cooperation, and national investment in counter-drone technology, doctrine, and legal frameworks.

Policy Innovation Series

Florida International University — Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio Nevares

October, 2025