Colombia's security crisis is a structural failure — not a problem awaiting the right foreign patron. Petro’s Paz Total has failed. But the U.S. that underwrote Plan Colombia no longer exists: its arsenals are depleted, its attention overextended, its reliability conditional. Whatever government Colombians elect, it will need a security strategy calibrated to the hemisphere that exists — not the one from twenty years ago.

To read the short briefing, please go to the Briefing Room, the full analysis can be found here.

Download the PDF version in English here.

The original Spanish version can be found on the website of El Espectador.

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Daniel Lozano

May 17, 2026

Colombia's 2026 election is a foreign policy inflection point. Each leading candidate represents a distinct strategic orientation: Cepeda toward autonomy and South-South cooperation; Valencia toward realignment with Washington; De la Espriella toward ideological rupturism without a coherent roadmap. This analysis maps the consequences of each scenario across U.S. relations, Chinese investment, regional positioning, counternarcotics, and migration.

To read the short briefing, please go to the Briefing Room, the full analysis can be found here.

Download the PDF version here in English or Spanish.

Authors: Daniel Lozano, María Paula Martínez, Dorian Kantor

May 2, 2026

Maduro's removal did not produce a democratic transition — it produced a Washington-supervised power rearrangement. Interim president Delcy Rodríguez, herself a former overseer of Venezuela's political repression, now governs with U.S. backing while the authoritarian infrastructure remains intact. Oil access and stability are driving U.S. priorities, not institutional reform. The transition Venezuelans were promised has yet to materialize.

Op-ed piece in the Colombian newspaper El Espectador.

You can read the English version here.

To download the PDF version in English, please click here.

Authors: Leonardo Carreño, Juan Diego Cubillos, Dorian Kantor

May 1, 2026

Colombia's 2026 elections are not merely a change of leadership — they are a decision about the country's place in a rapidly shifting international order. Cepeda bets on strategic autonomy and regional integration; Valencia on realignment with Washington; De la Espriella on conservative populism without a clear foreign policy roadmap. Three candidates, three familiar trajectories, divergent consequences.

To read the short briefing, please go to the Briefing Room, the full analysis can be found here.

Download the PDF version in English and Spanish.

Authors: María José Báez, María Paula Martínez, Dorian Kantor

April 29, 2026

As the United States deepens its military commitment in the Persian Gulf, its capacity to sustain hemispheric dominance is quietly eroding. This piece traces the concrete channels through which the Iran conflict is already reaching Latin America — energy price shocks, tightening dollar liquidity, expanding criminal economies, and weakening security partnerships — and argues that the region is absorbing the costs of a war it did not choose, without the protection the Monroe Doctrine once promised in exchange for deference.

Op-ed piece in the Colombian newspaper: El Espectador

You can read the English version here.

You can download the PDF version of the analysis here.

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Juan Diego Cubillos

April 11, 2026

This study analyzes how the convergence of low-cost drones and digital financial technologies is transforming criminal and paramilitary operations in Latin America, enabling violent nonstate actors and transnational criminal organizations to expand their operational reach, accelerate innovation cycles, and challenge state authority in both the physical and financial domains. It shows that drones are increasingly used for reconnaissance, smuggling, and kinetic attacks, while cryptocurrencies facilitate laundering, procurement, and financial concealment, together creating a more adaptive and resilient illicit ecosystem. The report finds that state responses remain fragmented, reactive, and heavily dependent on foreign technologies, with persistent gaps in doctrine, regulation, and interagency coordination, and concludes that without integrated counter-UAS capabilities, stronger financial oversight, and coordinated regional strategies, states will continue to lag behind rapidly evolving nonstate threats.

FIU Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio

March, 2026

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the rapid proliferation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in Latin America, examining how falling costs, technological diffusion, and adoption by both states and violent nonstate actors are reshaping security, governance, and economic activity across the region. It highlights a dual-use dynamic in which drones simultaneously enhance military capabilities, civilian industries, and development outcomes while enabling criminal innovation and asymmetric threats, exposing significant gaps in regulation, industrial capacity, and counter-UAS preparedness. Through comparative country cases and regional analysis of supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and operational use, the report concludes that Latin America’s strategic challenge lies in moving from reactive, import-dependent responses to coordinated, sovereign capacity-building that integrates innovation with effective governance and security policy.

FIU Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio

February, 2026

The U.S. is signaling military force toward Venezuela without a coherent strategy. Any intervention would be costly, unstable, and unlikely to produce political change. Airstrikes wouldn’t secure a transition and could trigger institutional collapse, regional crises, migration spikes, and greater Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence. Hard power offers no viable long-term solution.

Op-ed piece in the Colombian newspaper El Espectador

You can read the English version here.

To download the PDF version in English, please click here.

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio Nevares, Maria Paula Martínez

November 15, 2025

Weaponized commercial drones have transformed modern conflict by enabling weaker actors to shape the battlefield faster than laws or institutions can respond. While U.S. drones reinforced asymmetry during the Global War on Terror, today’s revolution is private-sector driven, rapidly adopted by Ukraine and violent non-state groups across Latin America. Mexican cartels and Colombian insurgents now use modified UAVs for surveillance, strikes, and psychological impact, escalating violence. With fragmented regulations and expanding global supply chains, states face rising instability. The paper calls for coordinated export controls, regional cooperation, and national investment in counter-drone technology, doctrine, and legal frameworks.

Policy Innovation Series

Florida International University — Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Felipe Santofimio Nevares

October, 2025

While democracy once flourished, recent trends indicate a troubling decline, exemplified by the erosion of democratic norms and practices globally. This article scrutinizes the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on American democracy, revealing a landscape fraught with polarization, institutional dysfunction, and societal divisions. With looming threats of authoritarian resurgence and geopolitical tensions, the article underscores the pivotal role of the United States in upholding the liberal world order. As the world watches the upcoming elections with bated breath, the fate of American democracy hangs in the balance, with profound implications for global stability and the future of governance.

Author: Dorian Kantor

Pax Lumina: A Quest for Peace and Reconciliation

p. 20 | Vol. 05 | No. 02 March 2024

This article published in Revista Credencial examines the potential implications of a second Trump presidency, highlighting the damage caused during his first term, including the undermining of international agreements, the weakening of U.S. alliances, and the erosion of trust in democratic institutions. The analysis predicts that Trump would likely pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions, setting a dangerous precedent in international law and further emboldening authoritarian regimes. It also discusses Europe’s limited capacity to sustain Ukraine without U.S. support and raises concerns about unchecked Israeli actions in Gaza encouraged by a Trump administration. Domestically, the article shows how Republican control of Congress and the Supreme Court would remove critical checks on presidential power, enabling the consolidation of executive authority, with long-term consequences for U.S. law and governance.

Author: Dorian Kanto

You can read the article in Spanish on the website of Revista Credencial.

Revista Credencial (Noviembre 2024, Edición 456)

This chapter critically examines the Biden administration's policy towards Latin America, revealing a significant gap between its initial promises and actual outcomes. The findings indicate that despite Biden's commitments to restoring democracy, improving economic ties, and addressing security concerns in the region, the administration has struggled to depart from traditional U.S. approaches. The analysis shows that structural challenges, entrenched interests, and the legacy of previous administrations have limited the effectiveness of Biden's policies. As a result, the anticipated shift towards a more cooperative and respectful relationship with Latin American countries has been only partially realized, with significant issues still unresolved.

Author: Dorian Kantor

Book chapter in Spanish in Reconfiguración del orden mundial: incertidumbres regionales y locales. Edited by Andrés Serbín, Eduardo Pastrana Buelvas, Stefan Reith, 111-116. Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2024.
ISBN: 978-628-7708-08-2

Democrats defied the tides of history and bucked the conventional wisdom which tells us that the incumbent president’s party suffers heavy losses in Congress in midterm elections. Despite the dire forecasts, the Democrats expanded their Senate majority (for the first time in a midterm since 1962) and far outperformed expectations in the House by ceding only 9 seats to Republicans. The pre-election “shellacking” narrative was driven by numerous factors such as the president’s low approval rating, economic concerns, and an increasingly out-of-control crisis at the southern border. A combination of confounding variables including the Dobbs effect, concerns about democratic backsliding, and the foreign and domestic policy accomplishments of Biden’s unified government energized the Democratic base as well as independent voters to turn out for the president’s party and softened the widely predicted midterm blow.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung - Analysis 
ISBN 978-3-98628-223-2

Authors: Dorian Kantor, Gerardo Caneva Zárate, Diana S. Meléndrez

January 2023